The Director General of the Abuja Chamber of Commerce and Industry (ACCI), Agabaidu Jideani, has projected a year of modest economic expansion for Nigeria in 2026, with the non-oil sector expected to be the primary driver. He cautioned, however, that political distractions and lingering insecurity pose significant threats to this outlook.
Grounds for Guarded Optimism in 2026
Jideani stated that 2026 offers grounds for guarded optimism for the Nigerian economy. He emphasized that if the country can minimize political distractions and entrench ongoing reforms, it could transition from recovery to inclusive growth. This would be characterized by stronger external buffers and improved living standards for citizens.
The projection builds on the macroeconomic stabilisation achieved in 2025, which was marked by moderating inflation, naira stability, and improved oil output. The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has projected a Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth of 4.49 per cent for 2026, up from an estimated 3.89 per cent in 2025.
Key Drivers and Reforms Shaping the Outlook
Several factors underpin the positive forecast. Jideani highlighted that exchange rate reforms, initiated in 2023 with the unification of the forex market, yielded relative stability by late 2025. The naira closed the year around N1,445–N1,465 per dollar in official channels, with parallel market rates narrowing significantly.
Furthermore, inflation, a persistent challenge, eased dramatically in 2025. Headline rates dropped to 14.45 per cent in November, the lowest in years, aided by bountiful harvests, naira appreciation, and tight monetary policy.
A major development is the full commencement of new tax reforms on January 1, 2026. The four new Acts—the Nigeria Tax Act, Tax Administration Act, Nigeria Revenue Service Act, and Joint Revenue Board Act—aim to broaden the revenue base, digitise compliance, and offer relief. Proponents insist nearly 98 per cent of workers and 97 per cent of SMEs will face reduced or zero tax liabilities.
Persisting Risks and Critical Concerns
Despite the optimistic indicators, the ACCI DG identified substantial headwinds. As a pre-election year, political manoeuvring could introduce distractions, potentially affecting governance focus, business confidence, and security efforts. He warned that historical patterns suggest populist spending and delayed reforms to avert backlash could fuel inflation or policy inconsistencies.
Security remains a critical concern, with the 2026 budget allocating about N5.41 trillion for modernisation, intelligence, and counterterrorism. Jideani noted that risks from elections, lingering insecurity, and global factors persist, though policy consistency positions the nation for performance surpassing recent years.
He concluded that the year's outcomes will hinge on the administration's ability to balance ambition with pragmatism in an increasingly politicised landscape, consolidating the gains achieved in 2025.
