Africa's 2.8B Population by 2060 Could Trigger Socioeconomic Crisis
Africa's 2.8B Population by 2060: Socioeconomic Crisis Looms

Former Governor of Edo State and Visiting Researcher at the School of African Studies, Boston University, United States, Godwin Obaseki, has issued a stark warning that Africa's projected population growth to approximately 2.82 billion by 2060 could precipitate a severe socioeconomic crisis. He emphasized that governments at all levels must urgently rethink education, skills development, and employment systems to avert this looming disaster.

Keynote Address at ICESCO Dialogue

Delivering a keynote address at the Third Islamic World Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organisation (ICESCO) Dialogue in London, United Kingdom, Obaseki noted that Africa is entering a decisive period. Over the next three decades, nearly two billion additional people will require education, employment, and integration into productive economies. He warned that the continent's current systems are not adequately prepared to meet these demands.

Learning Poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa

Obaseki stressed that over 89 percent of children in Sub-Saharan Africa are already in 'learning poverty,' while millions remain out of school entirely, including an estimated 15 million children in Nigeria alone. He argued that without urgent investment in foundational learning, the continent risks producing a large but under-skilled workforce.

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Summit Convened Experts

The summit convened ministers, policymakers, education experts, and development partners to examine how countries can move beyond rhetoric and achieve practical gains in K-12 education systems. Central to the discussions was the growing recognition that foundational education remains the bedrock of economic growth, social stability, and long-term national development.

EdoBEST Programme as a Model

The Edo Basic Education Sector Transformation (EdoBEST) programme, initiated by Obaseki to transform basic education through technology, once again took centre stage at the forum. ICESCO member States explored it as a model to drive education transformation, improve foundational learning, and tackle learning poverty across its 1.7 billion population.

Success Story of EdoBEST

Obaseki shared a success story and insight on how the EdoBEST programme, which was set up to tackle the decay in Edo's basic education system and address learning poverty, evolved into a large-scale education reform programme. It produced tangible classroom results, gaining global recognition, including from the World Bank, among others.

From Political Commitment to Classroom Results

In his address, 'From Political Commitment to Classroom Results: Lessons from Edo State,' Obaseki narrated how the programme progressed from political declarations to practical implementation. He noted that successful education reforms begin with leadership making education the government's most visible and consistent priority, rather than merely one item among competing agendas.

Migration Crisis Catalyst

Obaseki noted that the migration crisis, which saw more than 30,000 Edo youths stranded in Libya, pushed his administration to make education reform its top priority upon assuming office in 2016. He restated that the EdoBEST programme raised teacher attendance to 82 percent and expanded structured learning to more than 400,000 pupils across the state.

Investment Over Spectacle

Noting that a reform without a budget is a press release, the former governor stated: 'Every naira we put into EdoBEST could have been put into something visible – roads, hospitals, and ceremonies. We chose long-horizon investment over short-horizon spectacle. That choice has to be defended every single budget cycle.'

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