The Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG), a leading private sector policy think tank, has presented a cautiously optimistic projection for the national currency, forecasting that the naira will exchange at approximately N1,480 to the US dollar in 2026.
Macroeconomic Outlook Unveiled in Lagos
This key forecast was detailed during the unveiling of the NESG's 2026 Macroeconomic Outlook report in Lagos on Thursday, January 15, 2026. The report, titled 'Consolidating Economic Stabilisation Gains: Pathway to Sustainable Growth in Nigeria,' outlines a medium-term vision for the nation's economy, extending its analysis through to 2029.
According to the NESG, this exchange rate projection is underpinned by several critical factors. A primary driver is the anticipated steady accumulation of Nigeria's external reserves, which the group expects to climb to a robust $52 billion. Furthermore, the outlook anticipates a significant moderation in inflation, which is projected to ease to around 16% in 2026, with a further decline to a single-digit range of 8% to 10% by 2027.
Pillars of Growth and Reform Consolidation
The NESG's framework predicts economic growth of roughly 5.5% in 2026, fueled by enhanced policy coordination and stronger performances in vital productive sectors, particularly agriculture and manufacturing. Speaking at the report launch, NESG Chairman Olaniyi Yusuf emphasized that Nigeria is at a pivotal juncture in its reform journey.
Yusuf stated that the nation must now shift focus from managing short-term economic shocks to constructing durable systems that foster long-term productivity. He described the current phase as one of 'consolidation,' where recent macroeconomic gains must be intentionally channelled to tackle structural constraints on output, investment, and competitiveness.
"For Nigeria, consolidation demands a change in approach," Yusuf explained. "There must be a move from fragmented policymaking to coherence, from reactive measures to system-building, and from temporary solutions to stronger institutions." He warned that while reform fatigue is a genuine risk, reversing the implemented policies would incur far greater economic costs.
Contrasting Views and the Path Forward
In his presentation, Olusegun Omisakin, the NESG's Chief Economist and Director of Research, clarified that the group's 2026 projections are anchored in its medium-term macroeconomic framework. He reiterated the central role of agriculture and manufacturing in driving the projected 5.5% growth, building upon an estimated 5% expansion in 2025 under an optimistic scenario.
This NESG forecast presents a different timeline and figure compared to other recent projections. Notably, Yemi Kale, Chief Economist at the Africa Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank), had earlier projected in a separate economic outlook that the naira would trade around N1,340 per dollar by December 2026 under a baseline scenario, with a rate of about N1,313 by mid-year.
The NESG's comprehensive outlook ultimately hinges on the disciplined implementation of ongoing foreign exchange reforms, the maintenance of fiscal discipline, and improved policy sequencing. The group has pledged to continue supporting the government's reform agenda through data-driven analysis and sustained public-private dialogue.
