In a significant projection for the nation's economic trajectory, PwC Nigeria has forecast a gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate of 4.3 per cent for the year 2026. This outlook was detailed in the firm's '2026 Nigeria Economic Outlook' report, which was made public on Wednesday, January 7, 2026.
Foundations of the Growth Projection
The consulting giant stated that this positive forecast is based on expectations of a gradual moderation in inflation and continued stability of the naira. The report acknowledges the improvements in macroeconomic stability achieved in 2025, following critical monetary and foreign exchange reforms initiated by the government and the Central Bank of Nigeria.
These reforms led to easing inflation, a stabilising exchange rate, and a strengthening of the country's external reserves. PwC notes that this newfound stability is now actively reshaping the operational landscape for companies, investors, and financial markets as the new year unfolds.
Seven Key Themes Shaping 2026
The Economic Outlook 2026 pinpoints seven major issues that will define Nigeria's economic performance. These encompass both international and local influences.
The key themes identified are:
- Monetary policy effectiveness
- Fiscal sustainability and reform execution
- Global economic and geopolitical dynamics
- Domestic security and social pressures
- Uneven growth across different sectors
- Constraints on consumer affordability
- The expanding influence of the digital economy and artificial intelligence
Leadership Insights and Business Imperatives
Commenting on the findings, Sam Abu, the Country Senior Partner at PwC Nigeria, emphasised that the report provides a forward-looking analysis of crucial macroeconomic indicators. "Nigeria has achieved improved macroeconomic stability over the past year," Abu stated. "The focus now is on how that stability is translated into sustainable economic growth, and how businesses position themselves for 2026."
Olusegun Zaccheaus, Partner and Chief Economist at PwC Nigeria, provided further context. He noted that globally, growth is projected at around 3.1 per cent, with merchandise trade growth slowing to about 0.5 per cent. This keeps oil prices, capital flows, and access to foreign inflows as vital channels affecting Nigeria's growth and FX liquidity.
Domestically, Zaccheaus highlighted that while improved monetary policy has reduced volatility, fiscal pressures, security challenges, and weak household purchasing power continue to impact sectoral outcomes. He predicted that growth will likely remain concentrated in services and selected capital-intensive sectors.
The report concludes with practical advice for business leaders in 2026, urging them to:
- Make selective investments in attractive sectors and regions.
- Engage in scenario-planning for potential macroeconomic and geopolitical shocks.
- Adapt business models and cost structures for greater resilience.
- Accelerate digital transformation and responsible AI adoption.
- Strengthen regulatory and tax compliance as government reforms move from design to execution.
