Nigeria's Terms of Trade Rise 0.01% in Q4 2025 Amid Export Growth

Nigeria's Terms of Trade Rise 0.01% in Q4 2025 Amid Export Growth

Nigeria's all-commodity terms of trade (ToT) increased by 0.01 per cent in the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2025, according to a report released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). This marginal improvement comes as the value of exports rose by 0.12 per cent during the same period, signaling a slight economic uptick after previous declines.

Understanding Terms of Trade

The terms of trade represent the ratio of a country's export prices to its import prices. An increase in ToT, or when it exceeds 100 per cent, indicates that the value of exports has grown relative to imports, allowing the nation to afford more imports for the same export value. Conversely, a declining ToT means a country must export more to purchase the same amount of imports, which can lead to reduced purchasing power, lower living standards, higher technology costs, a widening current account deficit, and greater difficulty in paying foreign debt, ultimately signaling a weakening economic position.

Quarterly Performance and Regional Analysis

In the first quarter of 2025, Nigeria's terms of trade increased marginally by 0.05 per cent, only to decline by 0.46 per cent in the second quarter and by 0.1 per cent in the third quarter. The 0.01 per cent rise in Q4 thus marks a slight recovery. The NBS report detailed that all commodity group import and export indices on average increased by 0.11 and 0.12 per cent, respectively, during the quarter.

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The all-commodity ToT for October, November, and December 2025 stood at 102.27 per cent, 102.21 per cent, and 102.28 per cent, respectively. It decreased by 0.06 per cent in November and increased by 0.07 per cent in December, resulting in the overall 0.01 per cent increase between October and December 2025.

Export Price Changes by Region:

• Between October and December 2025, the all-region export index increased by 0.12 per cent, with changes in export prices to America (0.39 per cent), Europe (0.23 per cent), Asia (0.13 per cent), Africa (0.01 per cent), and Oceania (-0.01 per cent).
• From October to November 2025, export prices increased by 0.09 per cent, with America at 0.26 per cent, Europe at 0.19 per cent, Asia at 0.06 per cent, Africa at 0.01 per cent, and Oceania at -0.04 per cent.

Import Price Changes by Region:

• The all-region import price index increased by 0.11 per cent between October and December 2025, driven by changes in import prices from America (0.2 per cent), Europe (0.15 per cent), Asia (0.1 per cent), Oceania (0.05 per cent), and Africa (0.04 per cent).
• Month-on-month import price changes showed an increase of 0.15 per cent in November and a decrease of -0.04 per cent in December 2025. Between October and November, changes in import prices by region were: America (0.1 per cent), Europe (0.08 per cent), Africa (0.07 per cent), Asia (0.05 per cent), and Oceania (0.03 per cent).

Trade with France and Key Commodities

During Q4 2025, Nigeria imported postage stamps valued at N11.4 billion from France. On the export side, shipments to France were valued at N1.36 trillion, accounting for 7.19 per cent of total exports. The main commodity exported to France was petroleum oils and oils obtained from bituminous minerals, crude, worth N893.76 billion, followed by natural gas at N218.6 billion.

This report underscores the nuanced dynamics of Nigeria's trade performance, highlighting both challenges and areas of slight improvement as the economy navigates global market fluctuations.