The Nigerian Institute of Social and Economic Research (NISER) has released its medium-term outlook, indicating that Nigeria's economy is poised for a steady recovery over the next three years. The report projects that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth will reach 5.02 percent by 2028, while headline inflation is expected to decline to single digits.
Macroeconomic Forecast for 2026–2028
According to NISER's 2026–2028 macroeconomic forecast, these projections signal a turnaround from the persistent inflationary pressures and economic expansion that have characterized Africa's largest economy in recent years. The outlook was presented at the NISER Research Seminar Series, held in Ibadan under the theme 'Prospects for the Nigerian Economy, 2026–2028.' Researchers attributed the anticipated gains to ongoing fiscal reforms, improved revenue mobilization, and growth in the non-oil sector.
Seminar Highlights
The seminar brought together policymakers, researchers, academics, development practitioners, and stakeholders from both public and private sectors. They discussed the outlook for the Nigerian economy and the policy measures necessary to sustain macroeconomic stability and inclusive growth over the medium term.
GDP Growth Projections
During the seminar, GDP growth was forecasted to rise from 3.92 percent in 2025 to 4.72 percent in 2026, then to 4.85 percent in 2027, before reaching 5.02 percent in 2028. NISER revealed that the projected expansion hinges on continued policy consistency, infrastructure development, exchange rate stability, and favorable global economic conditions.
Inflation Trends
The institute projected that consumer price increases will moderate from 15.15 percent in 2025 to 11.66 percent in 2026, then to 7.86 percent in 2027, before settling at 5.61 percent in 2028—a level last seen more than a decade ago. Food inflation, a key driver of Nigeria's cost-of-living crisis, is also forecast to ease gradually. NISER linked this projected decline to anticipated improvements in agricultural production, supported by exchange rate stability and tighter monetary policy measures.
Fiscal Sustainability
NISER maintained that the debt service-to-revenue ratio, which strained government finances in the early 2020s, is expected to remain at more sustainable levels throughout the forecast horizon. According to the institute, ongoing efforts to broaden the tax base, expand non-oil revenue sources, and implement fiscal reforms are already yielding positive results.
“The Nigerian economy is expected to experience gradual stabilisation and moderate recovery over the next three years. These implementation mechanisms are needed at national and sub-national levels,” the NISER report stated.
