Femi Otedola Predicts Naira Below N1,000/$ As Dangote Refinery Hits Full Capacity
Prominent Nigerian billionaire and investor Femi Otedola has made a bold projection regarding the Nigerian naira, forecasting that the national currency could appreciate to trade below N1,000 per United States dollar before the conclusion of the current year. This optimistic outlook was shared publicly on Thursday, February 12, 2026, through Otedola's official social media account on platform X.
Refinery Achievement as Economic Catalyst
The foundation of Otedola's positive economic forecast is directly linked to the recent announcement that the Dangote Petroleum Refinery has successfully achieved full operational capacity. This monumental industrial milestone represents what Otedola describes as a major turning point for Nigeria's foreign exchange stability and overall economic outlook.
According to detailed information from the refinery, the facility now possesses the capability to supply up to 75 million litres of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) on a daily basis. This substantial domestic production capacity is expected to dramatically reduce Nigeria's historical dependence on imported refined petroleum products, which has traditionally constituted one of the most significant sources of foreign exchange demand within the national economy.
Otedola's Detailed Analysis and Projection
In his comprehensive social media statement, Otedola elaborated on his economic reasoning, writing: "With domestic refining now firmly underway after decades of reliance on imports, pressure on the foreign exchange market should ease significantly. I am optimistic that the naira will strengthen meaningfully, and trading below N1,000/$1 before year end is increasingly within reach."
The billionaire businessman emphasized that sustained domestic refining operations at this scale could meaningfully alleviate the long-standing pressure that has consistently weighed on the local currency's valuation in international markets. This development comes at a time when Nigeria's external reserves have reportedly climbed to their highest level in eight years, providing additional support for currency stabilization efforts.
Commendation for Aliko Dangote and Expansion Plans
Otedola extended heartfelt congratulations to Africa's wealthiest individual, Aliko Dangote, describing the refinery's achievement as transformational for Nigeria and the broader African continent. He highlighted that reaching full production capacity marks a crucial step toward achieving greater energy self-sufficiency and facilitating broader industrial expansion across multiple sectors.
Beyond the current operational milestone, Otedola revealed that Dangote has already initiated an ambitious $12 billion expansion project designed to substantially increase the refinery's processing capacity. This expansion aims to elevate production to 1.4 million barrels per day while simultaneously adding significant petrochemical manufacturing capabilities, including 2.4 million tons of polypropylene and 400,000 metric tons of Linear Alkyl Benzene for detergent production.
Market Impact and Diesel Price Trends
The refinery's increased production has already begun influencing market dynamics, particularly in the diesel sector. Recent reports indicate that diesel prices at Nigerian depots have declined significantly, now trading between N911 and N950 per litre across major locations. This represents a notable decrease from previous highs exceeding N1,100 per litre recorded in 2025.
Market analysts attribute this price reduction to multiple factors, including:
- Increased supply influx from multiple sources
- Weakened overall market demand
- Intense price competition between private depot operators and the Dangote Refinery
- Oversupply conditions following the arrival of additional diesel vessels
Industry observers anticipate that diesel prices may experience further declines as the market continues to adjust to the enhanced domestic production capacity now available through the Dangote Refinery's full operational status.
Broader Economic Implications
The successful ramp-up of Africa's largest refinery carries profound implications for Nigeria's economic landscape. By substantially reducing the need for imported refined petroleum products, the nation stands to conserve significant foreign exchange reserves that would otherwise be allocated to these purchases. This conservation effect could strengthen Nigeria's balance of payments position and provide greater stability for the national currency.
Furthermore, the refinery's operations and planned expansion are expected to generate substantial employment opportunities, stimulate ancillary industries, and contribute to technological advancement within Nigeria's energy sector. The achievement also positions Nigeria more favorably within regional and global energy markets, potentially attracting additional investment in related infrastructure and industrial projects.
As Nigeria continues to navigate complex economic challenges, the Dangote Refinery's full capacity production represents a significant milestone in the country's journey toward greater industrial self-reliance and economic diversification. While currency markets remain influenced by multiple domestic and international factors, Otedola's projection highlights the potential for substantial positive impact from this major industrial achievement on Nigeria's financial stability and economic prospects.
