Nigeria has officially missed its ambitious target for national broadband penetration set for the year 2025, with authorities now shifting focus to a new five-year strategy to connect millions of unserved citizens. The second National Broadband Plan (2020-2025), which concludes imminently, aimed for 70% coverage across the country.
Broadband Growth Falls Short of Target
Latest data from the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) reveals a significant shortfall. As of November 2025, broadband penetration stands at 50.58 per cent, meaning the nation is 19.42 percentage points away from achieving its goal. Analysis shows growth has been sluggish, with only a 4.97 per cent increase recorded from January to November this year, starting from 45.61 per cent at the beginning of 2025.
Given this slow trajectory, hitting the 70 per cent mark is now considered impossible, even with the final data for the year still pending. This shortfall highlights the persistent challenges in deploying digital infrastructure across Africa's most populous nation.
A New Roadmap for 2025-2030 Takes Shape
In response, the government is preparing a successor plan. The Executive Vice Chairman of the NCC, Dr. Aminu Maida, confirmed that engagements have already begun with the supervising ministry for a third iteration of the National Broadband Plan. This new framework, expected to cover 2025 to 2030, is designed to boost the Federal Government's ongoing efforts to expand internet connectivity nationwide.
The core of this new strategy appears to be a significant pivot towards space-based solutions. The NCC is actively promoting Direct-to-Device (D2D) satellite service as a transformative technology for the next phase. This initiative is detailed in the Commission's draft Spectrum Roadmap for the Communications Sector (2025–2030).
Satellite Technology to Bridge the Connectivity Gap
The 44-page roadmap positions non-terrestrial networks, like satellites, as a critical complement to traditional ground-based mobile towers. This is particularly vital for Nigeria, where millions remain offline due to difficult geography, security issues, and the high cost of infrastructure deployment.
Official figures underscore the scale of the challenge. The Minister of Communications, Innovation and Digital Economy, Dr. Bosun Tijani, noted earlier this year that approximately 4,834 communities, mostly rural, lack basic mobile connectivity. The Universal Service Provision Fund (USPF) further reported that while the number of people in unserved and underserved areas dropped from 36.8 million in 2013 to 23 million by 2024, this still represents a massive population housed in over 3,000 communities.
The NCC believes D2D technology could be a game-changer. It would enable voice and data services directly to standard mobile phones in signal blackspots, remote rural areas, riverine communities, and border regions. The Commission also highlighted its potential for:
- Network resilience as a backup during fibre cuts or power outages.
- Enhancing public safety and disaster response.
- Supporting Internet of Things (IoT) deployments and smart agriculture.
The roadmap specifically emphasizes the role of Low-Earth Orbit (LEO) satellites and points to new investment opportunities through partnerships between mobile network operators and satellite providers. A key focus will be on shared spectrum usage to improve the efficiency of Nigeria's national spectrum management.
As one plan ends with unmet goals, Nigerian telecom regulators are already looking to the skies, hoping satellite-powered connectivity will finally help the nation achieve its digital inclusion ambitions in the coming half-decade.
