Fresh scientific data has confirmed that the year 2025 was the planet's third warmest on record, continuing a relentless trend of rising global temperatures. The findings, released by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), show a world edging dangerously closer to permanent climate thresholds.
A Record-Breaking Decade of Heat
The report states that 2025 was marginally cooler than 2023 by just 0.01°C and 0.13°C cooler than the record-breaking 2024. More alarmingly, the past eleven consecutive years now rank as the eleven warmest ever documented. The analysis reveals a stark milestone: the three-year period from 2023 to 2025 averaged more than 1.5°C above the pre-industrial levels (1850–1900). This marks the first time such a prolonged stretch has surpassed this critical limit set by the Paris Agreement.
In 2025, the global surface air temperature was 1.47°C above the pre-industrial baseline, following 2024's peak of 1.60°C. Scientists estimate the current level of long-term warming is already around 1.4°C. Based on the present trajectory, the long-term 1.5°C warming limit could be reached by the end of this decade, a timeline over a decade faster than projections made when the Paris accord was signed.
Global Impacts and Escalating Heat Stress
The consequences of this heating are being felt worldwide. In 2025, half of all global land areas endured more days than average with at least strong heat stress, defined as a 'feels-like' temperature of 32°C or higher. The World Health Organisation (WHO) recognises heat stress as the leading cause of weather-related deaths globally.
Regional records were shattered across the globe. Air temperature over global land areas was the second warmest ever recorded. The Antarctic experienced its warmest yearly temperature on record, while the Arctic saw its second warmest. Record-high yearly temperatures were also noted in the northwestern and southwestern Pacific, the northeastern Atlantic, parts of Europe, and central Asia.
Scientific Consensus and Calls for Action
The data release was coordinated with other major climate monitoring bodies, including NASA, NOAA, the UK Met Office, Berkeley Earth, and the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO). The ECMWF operates the European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), which produced the report.
Dr Florian Pappenberger, Director-General of ECMWF, stated the report confirms the world is in its warmest recorded decade. He emphasised that preparedness is still possible but must be guided by robust scientific evidence. Dr Carlo Buontempo, Director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service, said the eleven-year warm streak provides undeniable evidence of an unmistakable trend towards a hotter climate.
Mauro Facchini, Head of Earth Observation at the European Commission, called exceeding the three-year 1.5°C average a "milestone none of us wished to reach." He stressed it reinforces the need for Europe's leadership in climate monitoring to guide both mitigation and adaptation efforts, expecting Copernicus to be vital for developing new climate resilience tools.
