Can Coalition Strategy Save ADC and Opposition Politics in Nigeria?
The emerging coalition of opposition heavyweights within the African Democratic Congress (ADC) bears a striking resemblance to the alliance that produced the All Progressives Congress (APC) under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu. However, its lack of a unifying figure without immediate presidential ambition may undermine its prospects ahead of the 2027 general elections, as political analysts closely monitor developments.
Atiku Abubakar's Pivotal Role in ADC Coalition
All eyes are on former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, the man behind the wheel of the ADC coalition. Known as the Turaki of Adamawa, Atiku is President Tinubu's longstanding political ally, dating back to the defunct Social Democratic Party (SDP) during the short-lived Third Republic. His role in founding the ADC coalition has revived echoes of the APC experience, raising questions about whether he will play a technical adviser role or lead from the front as captain.
The recent ADC national convention suggests that if Atiku remains aloof and offers technical and strategic support by rallying around a viable presidential contender, the ADC may replicate the APC's 2015 feat of unseating an incumbent government. This potential has contributed to the Tinubu-led APC's growing anxiety about a countervailing mega political structure.
Political Landscape and Opposition Dynamics
At a time when the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Ezenwo Nyesom Wike, effectively positioned himself as a rebel leader within the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), and Julius Abure appeared to play a disruptive role in the Labour Party (LP), the ruling APC had grown comfortable with the assumption that 2027 would likely be a walkover. However, an unanticipated cog emerged: Atiku neither lowered his guard nor retreated from active partisan politics.
He refused to allow the outcome of the 2023 election to cow or dissuade him from seeking alternative pathways, particularly away from the Wike-led insurgency within the PDP. This resilience has set the stage for a renewed opposition challenge.
Historical Context and Strategic Moves
Recall that Atiku's desire to contest the 2007 presidential election aligned with Tinubu's ambition to expand his political reach beyond the South-West, especially amid the leadership crisis that engulfed the Alliance for Democracy (AD) in 2003. Recognising Atiku's need for a viable platform to challenge his estranged principal, former President Olusegun Obasanjo, Tinubu offered his Action Congress.
To give the platform a national appeal befitting a presidential contest, Atiku and his allies proposed renaming the Action Congress as the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN). This broadened the 'AC' acronym, which Tinubu had deployed to evoke the legacy of the Action Group (AG), into a nationwide political movement by including 'Nigeria'.
After his unsuccessful 2007 presidential bid, Atiku returned to the PDP, the platform on which he had first attained national prominence. With his sights set on the PDP's presidential ticket ahead of the 2011 election, following the death of President Umaru Musa Yar'Adua, the former Vice President worked behind the scenes to promote a consensus approach for selecting a northern candidate to challenge President Goodluck Jonathan.
Coalition Building and Recent Developments
On July 2, 2025, when the new leadership of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) was unveiled, it became evident that the opposition was awakening to the need for a coordinated challenge to the ruling party. Although he remained publicly understated, Atiku quietly positioned himself at the centre of this emerging political realignment, much like Tinubu did in the formative years of the APC.
The familiar template was evident: assemble key political actors, craft compelling messaging, mobilise public sentiment, and articulate a broad national agenda. With a national leadership structure anchored by former Senate President David Mark, former Osun State governor Rauf Aregbesola, once a key Tinubu ally, and Atiku himself, the ADC began to project organisational seriousness.
Kwankwaso's eventual entry into the ADC further clarified the party's potential 2027 configuration. Echoing earlier alliance attempts, such as the ACN-CPC collaboration ahead of 2011, there are growing indications that efforts to unite Kwankwaso and Obi, which faltered in 2023, may now be gaining traction.
ADC National Convention and Strategic Messages
Against the backdrop of a potentially formidable opposition, the recent ADC national convention conveyed strong symbolic and strategic messages. The joint appearance of Obi and Kwankwaso, and the enthusiastic reception they received, signal possible alignment within the party.
In his address, ADC national chairman David Mark combined caution with defiance. While urging the ruling party to allow democratic space, he also warned against attempts to undermine the opposition, declaring: "We cannot bow, cow, or be intimidated."
Similarly, Aregbesola criticised the Tinubu administration's governance record, describing its "Renewed Hope Agenda" as unrealistic, and accusing the ruling party of attempting to stifle dissent out of fear of electoral rejection.
Future Prospects and Challenges
Uncertainty persists over Atiku's ultimate strategy, but there is cautious optimism that a fusion of Obi's Obidient Movement and Kwankwaso's Kwankwasiyya base could pose a significant challenge to the Tinubu-led APC in the January 18 presidential election. Former Minister of Transportation, Rotimi Amaechi, also weighed in, arguing that the ADC could defeat the incumbent if it presented a credible, broadly acceptable presidential candidate.
He cautioned against ethnic and religious considerations, stressing the need for merit-based selection. Recalling the APC's formative years, Amaechi noted: "When we joined APC, we searched for a viable candidate, and we succeeded," warning that identity politics could undermine coalition-building efforts.
Responding indirectly, Atiku indicated that the 2027 election would likely be his final presidential bid. However, younger voices within the ADC continue to urge him to adopt a kingmaker role, like Tinubu's pre-2015 strategy, by backing a consensus candidate. Meanwhile, some northern stakeholders argue that presenting a northern Muslim candidate against Tinubu could strategically position the region for a northern Christian presidency in 2031.
