The Independent Media and Policy Initiative (IMPI) has strongly criticized former US President Donald Trump's decision to redesignate Nigeria as a Country of Particular Concern (CPC), arguing it was based on manipulated and exaggerated data provided by organizations with hidden agendas.
Questionable Data Sources Exposed
In a detailed statement issued by its Chairman, Dr Omoniyi Akinsiju, the policy think tank identified specific groups that have been circulating what it called "jaundiced and obtrusive" information about Nigeria's security situation. Intersociety, a local Nigerian NGO, and Open Doors, an international Christian charity, were named as primary sources of misleading data that misrepresents the country's religious violence statistics.
IMPI expressed serious concern about how organizations with vested interests are manipulating terrorism-related statistics to portray Nigeria as a nation where Christians face existential threats. The group emphasized that while every life lost to violence is tragic, it is equally immoral to fabricate death statistics to support particular viewpoints.
Discrepancies in Fatality Figures
The think tank presented compelling evidence showing significant disparities between the figures circulated by these NGOs and established global terrorism databases. Intersociety had reported that 5,068 Christians were killed in Nigeria during 2022, while Open Doors claimed 5,014 Christians were killed for their faith in the same year, stating this represented more Christian deaths than the rest of the world combined.
However, IMPI's research revealed that the Global Terrorism Index (GTI) told a completely different story. The GTI reported only 392 terrorism-related deaths in Nigeria for 2022, marking the lowest level since 2011. This represents a dramatic 9% decrease in global terrorism deaths from the previous year and a 38% reduction from the 2015 peak.
The discrepancies continued into subsequent years. While fatalities increased to 533 in 2023 and 565 in 2024 according to GTI, Intersociety reported an astonishing 8,222 Christian deaths between January 1, 2023, and January 1, 2024. Similarly, Open Doors claimed that 82% of global faith-based Christian killings in 2023 occurred in Nigeria.
Pattern of Data Manipulation
IMPI's investigation uncovered that this pattern of data inflation dates back to at least 2019. The think tank's researchers found that Intersociety has consistently produced Christian death figures that contradict established databases like the Global Terrorism Index and academic research on lethal violence in Nigeria.
In 2019, while GTI reported a significant 39.1% decrease in terrorism deaths in Nigeria (from 2,043 in 2018 to 1,245 in 2019), Intersociety claimed between 1,000 and 1,200 "Christian deaths" during the same period. This suggests the NGO was attributing virtually all reported fatalities to Christian deaths, despite comprehensive research showing multiple causes of violent deaths across different demographics.
IMPI characterized this as a deliberate strategy to inflame divisive passions among Nigerians and justify the country's designation as a CPC by the American government.
Call for Proper Verification
The policy group expressed disappointment that the United States would make such significant diplomatic decisions without proper verification of the underlying data. IMPI emphasized that the US should validate any information presented to its president before using it to designate countries for special concern status.
Noting that similar data manipulation temporarily succeeded in 2020 when Trump first designated Nigeria as a CPC during his initial term, IMPI argued that this decision was questionable even then, given the declining trend in terrorism-related deaths at that time.
The think tank concluded that a better understanding of Nigeria's actual situation through proper government-to-government engagement would inevitably lead to the United States withdrawing Nigeria from its CPC list. They called for more rigorous fact-checking and evidence-based decision making in international relations.
