In a profound reflection on Nigeria's political future, renowned scholar Professor Ladipo Adamolekun has presented a compelling case for transitioning to a system of coalition and consensus-based governance. His analysis, drawn from seminal works published in the 1980s, argues that this model is the most viable path for national stability and progress.
The Foundation: Why Nigeria Needs Coalition Politics
Adamolekun posits that the conventional Government versus Opposition framework, inherited from Westminster, is fundamentally unsuitable for Nigeria's complex socio-political landscape. He contends that the nation is unlikely to function effectively under a one-party system either. Instead, he proposes a coalition system as a transitional—or possibly permanent—arrangement that sits between these two extremes.
This system would allow democratic habits and values to form organically. At the federal level, he suggests a government composed of representatives from parties that hold at least 10 percent of parliamentary seats from more than two of the original twelve states—a threshold that would translate to six of the current 36 states. Individual states, however, could be free to experiment with either a government-opposition or one-party model based on their local dynamics.
Mechanics of a Consensus-Driven System
The core of Adamolekun's argument is that competitive politics must be synthesized with consensus politics. He believes progress toward national unity on governance is more assured under a coalition government. The guidelines for such a system must extend beyond mere elite power-sharing to actively pursue national progress and unity.
He envisions a National Consensus Assembly tasked with crafting this new framework. This body would include a broad spectrum of society: the political elite, military elite, intelligentsia (academics, professionals, journalists), traditional rulers, and representatives from religious bodies, trade unions, women's groups, students, and farmers' organizations.
Their mandate would be twofold: to further revise the 1979 Constitution and to prepare a binding Memorandum of Understanding (MOU). This MOU would clearly define how coalition politics operates in Nigeria, addressing critical issues like the nature of federalism, maintenance of rule of law and basic freedoms, ensuring effective citizen participation, and articulating a national philosophy of development.
Historical Precedent and Contemporary Urgency
Adamolekun supports his thesis with historical evidence. He notes that between 1952 and 1983, Nigeria was governed by a grand coalition of major parties for nine years, a grand national coalition under military rule for nearly thirteen years, and a "limited coalition" for eight years. A minority government existed only briefly from 1981 to 1983.
His analysis suggests that political tensions were most intense during periods of limited coalition and minority government, excluding the Civil War years. This historical pattern underscores his claim that consensus is more achievable under a coalition model.
Addressing the contemporary scene, Adamolekun observes a lack of clear ideological divides—like Progressive/Conservative or Left/Right—among Nigeria's main political parties. He argues that the primary driver for most political actors is access to power and national resources, not ideology. Given the similarity in party manifestos, he questions why adversarial "do or die" politics persists.
He proposes a formal coalition at both federal and state levels, with positions allocated proportionally based on votes secured. A participation threshold could be set at 25% of votes nationally and 10% at the state level. This would be formalized via a pre-agreed MOU outlining core principles and policies.
Potential Benefits and Acknowledged Risks
The scholar draws parallels with countries like Austria, Belgium, and Switzerland, where coalition governments have managed deep ethnic and linguistic divides to deliver peace and development for decades. He even suggests declaring the drive for a prosperous Nigeria by 2020 (now a past target) a national emergency, to be tackled by three successive coalition governments over a 12-year period.
However, Adamolekun candidly acknowledges the dangers. The primary risk is the "sharing of the national cake" mentality, where focus shifts to distributing spoils among elites rather than growing the economy and fighting poverty. To mitigate this, he emphasizes that the rules of the political game must be written to favor only the coalition-minded politician and must protect the freedom of parties outside the coalition to offer organized criticism without destabilizing the government.
For consensus politics to thrive, he identifies essential prerequisites: a free press, a culture of open debate and tolerance, an independent judiciary guaranteeing the rule of law, and a constitutional enshrinement of state secularity in a multi-religious society.
Ultimately, Ladipo Adamolekun's detailed blueprint presents coalition and consensus politics not as a weakness, but as a pragmatic and potentially strength-based adaptation of democracy to Nigeria's unique national fabric.
