The political landscape in Rivers State is once again heating up as the renewed rivalry between Governor Siminalayi Fubara and his predecessor, the current Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, Nyesom Wike, takes center stage. This ongoing conflict has prompted political analysts to weigh in on the potential outcomes, particularly for Governor Fubara's future.
Root Cause of the Rivers Political Crisis
In an exclusive interview with Legit.ng, political analyst Omotayo Yusuf delved into the underlying issues plaguing the oil-rich state. Yusuf pointed to a lack of strong political institutions as the fundamental problem, describing Rivers as "a rich state without a strong institution," which he called "a recipe for disaster." He highlighted the state's history of violent and tumultuous political transitions, referencing the eras of both Wike and his own predecessor, Rotimi Amaechi.
Yusuf noted that the recent burning of the state assembly complex and other conflicts are symptomatic of this deep-seated institutional weakness. This environment of constant power play, he argued, has repeatedly impacted the lives of ordinary citizens in Rivers State.
Fubara's Defection: A Masterstroke or a Miscalculation?
A major development in this saga is Governor Fubara's defection from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC). While this move was unexpected at the start of his rift with Wike, Yusuf analyzed its implications with caution.
On one hand, the analyst acknowledged that the defection could be seen as a tactical move. Since Wike remains in the PDP, Fubara's shift to the APC means he can now rely on the ruling party's national and state machinery for protection and support. This, in theory, improves his political standing as he looks toward the 2027 gubernatorial election.
However, Yusuf expressed significant doubts about the long-term effectiveness of this strategy. He stated plainly, "I don't think it is an interesting move that might protect him from Wike and may also not guarantee him his re-election." He questioned the advice Fubara is receiving, suggesting that the defection, while a dramatic game-changer, may not be enough to secure a second term in office given the complex and volatile nature of Rivers politics.
The 2027 Election and the Fate of Governor Fubara
The analyst's prediction sets the stage for a highly contested 2027 election in Rivers State. While Fubara's defection to the APC provides him with immediate structural shelter from his political godfather-turned-rival, it does not erase the fundamental challenges of governing a state with a history of fierce political warfare.
The coming years will test whether control of the state's political machinery under the APC banner can overcome the entrenched influence Wike continues to wield from his position as FCT Minister in Abuja. The battle for Rivers State is far from over, and as Yusuf's analysis indicates, Governor Fubara's political fate remains uncertain despite his bold party switch.
In a related development highlighting the governor's current outreach, it was reported that Governor Fubara approved a N100,000 Christmas bonus for state workers and pensioners. This gesture, celebrated as a 13th-month salary by beneficiaries, made him the second governor in Nigeria to announce such a bonus for the 2025 yuletide season.
