As the 2027 general election approaches, the All Progressives Congress (APC) faces a critical test in managing post-primary crises. The defection of aggrieved contestants and their supporters to opposition parties, coupled with unrest among defeated aspirants, has raised concerns about the party's ability to retain power. Adamu Abuh reports.
Historical Context of Internal Disputes
Since coming to power in 2015, the APC has repeatedly faced internal disputes arising from candidate selection. These disputes have, at times, weakened party cohesion, triggered costly litigation, and fueled defections. The party's formation in 2013 as a coalition of diverse political groups—including the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP), and defectors from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP)—created multiple centers of influence that have made primaries particularly contentious.
Reconciliation Efforts Underway
APC National Chairman Nentawe Yilwatda recently announced that the National Working Committee (NWC) has activated reconciliation and conflict-resolution structures. Speaking after a meeting with President Bola Tinubu, Yilwatda stated, “We have Presidential Conflict Resolution Committees and Party Reconciliation Committees that are already working.” He acknowledged that disagreements are inevitable in competitive politics but expressed confidence in the party's ability to manage them.
Past Lessons: Successes and Failures
The APC's history offers stark lessons. In Zamfara State before the 2019 elections, a supremacy battle between camps loyal to former governor Abdulaziz Yari and Senator Kabiru Marafa led to parallel primaries and the eventual loss of all elective positions after a Supreme Court ruling. Similarly, in Rivers State, rivalry between supporters of Rotimi Amaechi and Magnus Abe resulted in the APC's exclusion from key elections. In Edo State, the collapse of reconciliation efforts between former governor Godwin Obaseki and former National Chairman Adams Oshiomhole led to Obaseki's defection to the PDP and re-election.
However, there have been successes. In Ondo State ahead of the 2020 governorship election, swift intervention prevented fragmentation. In Ekiti State, after Governor Biodun Oyebanji emerged from the 2022 primary, party leaders quickly pacified dissatisfied camps, preventing defections.
Current Warning Signs
Despite reconciliation efforts, warning signs are emerging. In Gombe State, former Minister of Communications and Digital Economy Isa Ali Pantami defected to the PDP after withdrawing from the APC primary over alleged irregularities, later becoming the PDP governorship candidate. In Kano State, several lawmakers defected to the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC) after failing to secure return tickets. In Delta State, former Deputy President of the Senate Ovie Omo-Agege defected to the NDC after losing the APC ticket. Additionally, Senator Garba Maidoki and former APC National Youth Leader Sadiq Abubakar have expressed grievances.
In Benue State, governorship aspirant Dr. Jeffrey Kuraun accused the party of frustrating his attempt to challenge the primary outcome, alleging that the appeal committee became unreachable. He stated, “The inability of aspirants to access the appeal committee undermines the credibility of the entire dispute resolution process.”
Structural Challenges Ahead
The APC has developed an elaborate conflict-management framework, including the NWC, reconciliation committees, and interventions by power brokers. This strategy stabilized the party ahead of the 2023 elections. However, the political environment ahead of 2027 is more combustible, with higher stakes involving control of party structures, succession calculations, and President Tinubu's second-term ambition.
Complaints about consensus arrangements and elite imposition have deepened perceptions that internal democracy is being subordinated to political power calculations. When outcomes are seen as predetermined, reconciliation becomes more difficult, as grievances shift from disappointment to questions of legitimacy.
Despite these challenges, the APC retains advantages, including a culture of political accommodation where aggrieved actors often return to negotiations when future opportunities arise. Yilwatda expressed confidence, noting that recently concluded congresses across 36 states and the FCT, which many predicted would fracture the party, were managed successfully.
Founding member Osita Okechukwu defended the inevitability of disputes, stating that internal disagreements are part of democracy and can be managed through institutional mechanisms or by allowing aggrieved members to defect.
Critical Gap in Strategy
Significantly, the Yilwatda-led NWC has yet to hold a comprehensive strategy meeting to review the political implications of the primaries and fine-tune a coordinated reconciliation framework since President Tinubu was declared the APC presidential primary winner. This gap may prove critical.
Ultimately, the APC's greatest challenge may not come from opposition parties but from the tension between elite control and internal inclusiveness. Reconciliation committees can only succeed where aggrieved stakeholders still believe they have a future within the party. Once that confidence collapses, internal disputes cease to be temporary disagreements and begin shaping broader political realignments.
