The All Progressives Congress (APC) primary election for Surulere Constituency I in Lagos State has concluded, delivering one of the most significant upsets in the state's political landscape ahead of the 2027 general election. Actor-turned-lawmaker Desmond Elliot, who served three terms in the Lagos State House of Assembly, lost his bid for a fourth term to Barakat Odunuga-Bakare. Odunuga-Bakare, widely believed to have the backing of Femi Gbajabiamila, chief of staff to President Bola Tinubu, secured 11,385 votes, while Elliot managed only 270 votes.
Elliot's Rejection of the Outcome
Despite the overwhelming margin, Elliot has rejected the process and vowed to challenge the result through the party's internal appeal mechanism. He stated, "We are appealing, and as I say, it is not a do-or-die affair. I'm here to serve the people. That's my home." He emphasized that only the party could ask him to step down, saying, "If the party says Desmond go down, that is when I will step down because I'm a party person."
In a previous article, Elliot's aide defended his decision to remain in the race despite losing political backing. The aide argued that the APC leadership under Tinubu never explicitly asked Elliot to withdraw and that denying him another term would harm Surulere, as Elliot had a strong chance of becoming a principal officer, possibly speaker, which could attract more projects to the constituency.
Internal Party Dynamics
This argument, though logical on the surface, overlooks the deeper realities of Lagos APC politics. Following the failed attempt to remove Mudashiru Obasa as speaker of the Lagos State House of Assembly—a move reversed after Tinubu's intervention—it became clear that lawmakers perceived as contributing to the crisis would struggle to secure return tickets. Tinubu, a seasoned politician, understood Obasa's excesses, including his strained relationship with Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu, but chose stability over escalation to preserve his political base in Lagos.
Elliot's situation worsened after he was seen weeping when Mojisola Meranda stepped down as speaker to allow Obasa's return. Many within the party interpreted this as quiet disapproval of Tinubu's directive, weakening Elliot's standing.
The Gbajabiamila Factor
Even after Gbajabiamila openly backed Odunuga-Bakare, Elliot continued campaigning with Tinubu-branded materials and promised to work for the president's re-election. However, the question remained: in what political capacity? Gbajabiamila, as Tinubu's chief of staff and close ally, holds significant sway in Surulere. If Gbajabiamila rejects a candidate, it is almost impossible to separate that from Tinubu's broader political thinking. Had Tinubu genuinely wanted Elliot to continue, Gbajabiamila would likely not have endorsed another aspirant so openly.
Elliot argued that a fourth term would position him for a principal office, allowing him to attract development to Surulere. Yet, this raises another question: what projects can a principal officer deliver that surpass what Gbajabiamila, a former speaker of the House of Representatives and current chief of staff, already brings to the constituency?
Historical Precedent: Ajide vs. Gbajabiamila
Within Surulere APC, Gbajabiamila remains the undisputed political authority. Only Tinubu or the First Lady can override his decisions. This was evident years ago when Tajudeen Ajide, former chairman of Surulere local government, engaged Gbajabiamila in a supremacy battle over control of the council's political structure. Ajide accused Gbajabiamila of fueling the crisis, but Gbajabiamila prevailed, ensuring his loyalist, Sulaimon Yusuf, became council chairman. Ironically, Elliot later described Yusuf as his friend but complained that Yusuf intimidated his supporters while campaigning for Odunuga-Bakare.
Lessons from Hakeem Masha
Elliot should study the political fate of Hakeem Masha, a former lawmaker who represented Lagos Island Constituency I from 2011 to 2015. In 2015, Masha sought re-election, but the party preferred Wasiu Eshilokun, as the speakership was zoned to Lagos Central. Eshilokun won the primary with 186 votes to Masha's 70. Masha rejected the outcome and took the matter to court. The legal battle dragged on, and the court eventually recognized Eshilokun as the APC candidate. Masha withdrew his case after an appeal.
The outcomes were instructive. Eshilokun became deputy speaker of the Lagos assembly and later a senator, securing the party's ticket for re-election. Masha, however, disappeared from mainstream Lagos politics, winning no elective office or significant appointment. Recently, he attempted a return to the Lagos assembly but was advised to step down.
Final Lesson from Ambode
Former Governor Akinwunmi Ambode accepted defeat gracefully after losing the governorship primary to Babajide Sanwo-Olu. He congratulated Sanwo-Olu, pledged loyalty, and today sits on the influential Governance Advisory Council (GAC), the highest decision-making body in Lagos APC. Elliot should take a cue from that example.
In Lagos APC politics, victory is determined not just by popularity or ambition but by alignment with the party's dominant structure. When that structure moves against you, resistance may satisfy personal pride, but history suggests it rarely ends well.
