There is a distinct line between political strategy and the erosion of principle. When that boundary becomes unclear, what emerges is not strength but a dangerous precedent that can outlast its creator and ultimately weaken the very structure it was meant to protect. The quiet but significant recognition of Ogun State Governor Dapo Abiodun as a leader within the South-West political architecture of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu represents such an anomaly that demands careful examination. This development is not merely puzzling; it sends a troubling signal about how power may be recalibrating within the ruling party. President Tinubu has walked this path before, and history has not been kind to its outcomes.
The Background of Political Ambivalence
In the tense period leading up to the 2023 elections, political lines were not as clearly drawn as public statements suggested. Ironically, some individuals long perceived as beneficiaries of Tinubu's political goodwill became hesitant, if not openly opposed, to his presidential ambition. Among them were figures like Rauf Aregbesola, a two-term governor whose rise was significantly shaped by Tinubu's political structure, and Femi Ojudu, a long-time associate from the pro-democracy era. Governor Abiodun himself has not refuted reports linking him to this circle of ambivalence, aligning more visibly with then-Vice President Yemi Osinbajo, whose presidential aspiration placed him in direct competition with his political benefactor.
The Role of Loyalty and Dissent
While dissent existed, so did loyalty. Figures like Gbenga Daniel and other steadfast allies maintained the line, offering unambiguous support when it mattered most. Senator Ibikunle Amosun even stepped down his own aspiration to ensure a brother from the Southwest emerged as president. These individuals did not hedge their bets or recalibrate their loyalties in moments of uncertainty; they helped sustain the political momentum that eventually carried Tinubu to victory. Against this backdrop, the current elevation of Abiodun becomes not just questionable but instructive for all the wrong reasons.
The Contradiction of Rewarding Rebellion
The contradiction is stark. A leader once publicly diminished in Abeokuta, the Ogun State capital, through the infamous "Eleyi" remark—a word that, within the Yoruba sociopolitical context, conveys unmistakable condescension—is today being repositioned as a central figure in the President's regional calculus. This reversal is not merely ironic; it is emblematic of a deeper inconsistency that risks redefining the moral compass of party politics.
A Cautionary Tale from Aregbesola
The trajectory of Aregbesola serves as a cautionary tale. What began as a relationship rooted in trust and political mentorship gradually deteriorated into one of the most consequential fractures within the progressive fold. The fallout did not just strain personal ties; it destabilized party cohesion in Osun State, with scathing effects on Lagos, and exposed the vulnerability of alliances built without enduring alignment. The lesson should have been clear: loyalty, once discounted, is difficult to rebuild; rebellion, once normalized, is difficult to contain. Yet, the current pattern suggests this lesson is being overlooked.
The Risks of Elevating Abiodun
By attempting to elevate Abiodun above long-standing loyalists—many of whom have been integral to the South-West political structure since its formative years—the President risks institutionalizing a troubling precedent. This is one where strategic hesitation is forgiven, even rewarded, while consistency is quietly sidelined. The implications are profound.
Erosion of Internal Morality
First, it erodes internal morality within the party. Political organizations are sustained not just by power but by shared expectations. When those expectations are disrupted, when loyalty is no longer the currency of advancement, the next step is the beginning of the collapse of trust.
Incentivizing Opportunism
Second, it incentivizes opportunism. If political actors come to believe that alignment at critical moments is optional and that eventual reward is still guaranteed, then discipline gives way to calculation. The party becomes less a cohesive force and more a marketplace of shifting allegiances.
Heightened Risk of Repeated Betrayal
Third, it heightens the risk of repeated betrayal. Political history, both within and beyond Nigeria, shows that individuals who ascend through ambiguous loyalty often retain that ambiguity. Elevating such figures into strategic roles is not merely a gamble; it is a replication of a known risk.
Resentment Among Loyalists
Fourth, it breeds resentment among committed loyalists. Across Ogun State and the wider South-West, there are party members who have invested years, sometimes decades, in building grassroots structures. To see such investments overshadowed by what appears to be a reward for political and ideological fluidity is to invite quiet disaffection—the kind that often manifests when it matters most: at the ballot box.
Immediate Dangers for the APC in Ogun State
For the APC in Ogun State, the danger is immediate and tangible. A fractured internal structure heading into 2027 could weaken electoral confidence, deepen factional divides, and create openings for opposition forces. Elections are not won by proximity to power alone; they are secured by cohesive, motivated, and trusted networks.
Long-Term Implications for the Post-Tinubu Era
Even more concerning is the long-term implication for the post-Tinubu era. The President's legacy will not be defined solely by his tenure in office but by the resilience of the political structure he leaves behind. The APC, particularly in the South-West, is a product of sustained effort, sacrifice, and strategic vision. To recalibrate its reward system in a way that diminishes loyalty is to risk leaving behind a weakened, fragmented organization.
Local Realities in Ogun East
The anomaly becomes even more pronounced when local realities are considered. In Ogun East, political tensions and intra-party disputes continue to shape perceptions. Incidents such as the reported exclusion of Gbenga Daniel from key stakeholder engagements raise questions about inclusivity and internal democracy. If anything, such developments suggest a political environment far from consolidated. In that context, the notion of continued recognition given to Abiodun—potentially positioning him for broader influence or future contests—appears not only contentious but strategically fragile. Rather than strengthening the party's base, it risks amplifying existing fractures.
What Exactly Is Being Rewarded?
This brings us to an unavoidable question: what exactly is being rewarded? If the answer is political expediency, then the cost may be far greater than the immediate gain. Leadership demands more than tactical brilliance; it requires consistency, memory, and the discipline to learn from precedent. While President Tinubu's political journey is defined by resilience and strategic depth, even the most seasoned actors must guard against repeating patterns that history has already exposed as flawed.
A Structural Warning
The warning, therefore, is neither personal nor sentimental; it is structural. A system that rewards rebellion over loyalty cannot build stability; it cultivates uncertainty. It does not inspire confidence; it encourages calculation. And ultimately, it does not endure; it fragments. For the sake of the APC in Ogun State, for the stability of the South-West political architecture, and for the integrity of the legacy he has labored to build, this is a lesson President Tinubu cannot afford to ignore.
Olutunbosun wrote from Ijoko in Ogun State.
