The World Bank Group has stated that the ongoing war in the Middle East has caused a significant surge in global commodity prices, projecting a 16 percent increase in 2026. This rise could push up to 45 million additional people in Nigeria and other developing nations into acute food insecurity.
Commodity Price Surge
In its latest Commodity Markets Outlook, the World Bank noted that this marks the first yearly increase since 2022 and could worsen inflation and growth prospects for developing economies. Global commodity prices are now expected to remain about 25 percent higher than forecast in January 2026, driven by supply disruptions affecting energy and fertiliser markets.
Fertiliser prices are expected to jump by 31 percent, while energy prices are projected to rise by 24 percent in 2026. Metals and minerals prices are forecast to increase by 17 percent, supported by tight supplies and strong industrial demand. Precious metals are projected to soar by 42 percent to record highs.
In contrast, agricultural commodity prices are expected to decline by six percent this year due to a sharp 30 percent drop in beverage prices, particularly cocoa and coffee, despite a two percent increase in food prices.
Impact on Developing Economies
The World Bank warned that the geopolitical crisis could deepen economic hardship across Emerging Market and Developing Economies (EMDEs), where growth forecasts have been revised downward from four percent to 3.6 percent for 2026. Inflation projections have also worsened, with EMDE inflation now forecast to average 5.1 percent, up from an earlier estimate of 4.1 percent.
Prolonged high oil prices could worsen global food insecurity. Early estimates from the World Food Programme indicate that if crude oil prices remain above $100 per barrel for an extended period, up to 45 million additional people could face acute food insecurity.
Oil and Energy Markets
Oil markets recorded sharp increases during the first quarter of 2026. Brent crude surged from $72 per barrel at the end of February to $118 by the end of March, a 65 percent monthly rise and the largest increase on record. This followed disruptions to oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on regional energy infrastructure.
Although prices eased after a ceasefire announcement in April, Brent crude remained more than 50 percent above its level at the start of the year. The World Bank projects Brent crude to average $86 per barrel in 2026 before easing to $70 per barrel in 2027, if supply disruptions subside within the second quarter.
Natural gas prices also climbed sharply amid intense global competition for liquefied natural gas (LNG). Asian LNG benchmark prices surged by 94 percent in March, while European natural gas prices rose by 59 percent. European natural gas prices are projected to increase by about 25 percent in 2026 before declining by 20 percent in 2027. In the United States, benchmark gas prices are expected to rise by eight percent this year and five percent next year.
Fertiliser and Metals Markets
The fertiliser market has come under pressure, with the World Bank's fertiliser price index rising more than 12 percent in the first quarter of 2026, reaching its highest monthly level since 2022. The increase is largely due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which disrupted exports of fertilisers and raw materials. Urea prices recorded the strongest gains among fertiliser products.
The metals and minerals price index rose 13 percent in the first quarter of 2026 and is expected to climb by 17 percent for the year, driven by supply concerns and strong demand from emerging industries. Aluminium prices are projected to rise by about 22 percent in 2026 due to the Middle East's critical role in global supply, while copper prices are also expected to remain elevated.
Precious Metals and Outlook
Precious metals emerged as one of the biggest gainers, with gold, silver, and platinum prices reaching record highs in the first quarter of 2026 amid heightened geopolitical tensions and safe-haven demand. The World Bank projects precious metals prices to surge by 42 percent in 2026 before easing by eight percent in 2027.
The report warned that higher transport costs, elevated fertiliser prices, and possible extreme weather conditions could still push food prices higher and worsen food insecurity in vulnerable economies.
