Opta's supercomputer has released its predictions for the 2026 FIFA World Cup winner with 16 teams remaining in the tournament. According to the analysis, France leads the pack with a 28.89% chance of lifting the trophy, followed by defending champions Argentina at 16.32% and Spain at 12.96%.
Round of 16 Set After Exciting Knockout Openers
The first round of the knockout stage concluded with Colombia's 1-0 victory over Ghana, setting the stage for the Round of 16 which kicks off on July 4, 2026, at 5 PM GMT between co-hosts Canada and Morocco in Houston. Defending champions Argentina labored for a 3-2 win over Cape Verde after extra time, while France and Spain had comfortable victories against Sweden and Austria respectively.
England came from behind to defeat DR Congo, and Portugal secured a hard-fought win over Croatia in Luka Modric's last World Cup appearance. Co-hosts Canada and USA beat South Africa and Bosnia and Herzegovina respectively, while Mexico defeated Ecuador 2-0 to keep all three co-hosts' campaigns alive. Belgium came from two goals down to eliminate Senegal, Brazil secured a comeback win over Japan, and Paraguay stunned Germany on penalties.
African Teams' Performance
As noted by CAF, nine out of ten African countries made it out of the group stage, but after the first knockout round, seven have been eliminated, with only Morocco and Egypt remaining. The results and next stage draws are shaping the potential winner, with Opta's supercomputer providing detailed probabilities.
Top Contenders' Chances
France, initially second favorites at the start of the tournament, have improved their standing with strong performances. They now have a 44.68% chance of reaching a third straight final and 28.89% of winning the trophy. Argentina, who breezed through the group stage but were taken to the limit by Cape Verde, have a 31.12% chance of reaching the final and 16.32% of retaining the title.
Spain, under Luis de la Fuente, are settling into the tournament after their convincing win over Austria. They have a 22.58% chance of reaching their first final since 2010 and 12.96% of winning their second world title. Brazil, led by Carlo Ancelotti and spearheaded by Vinicius Jr, have been one of the best teams and have a 19.68% chance of reaching the final and 9.11% of winning their first trophy since 2002.
England's chances have dropped since the start, but Thomas Tuchel's side remains a favorite with a 17.06% chance of reaching the final and 8.14% of winning their first title since 1966. Harry Kane kept England's hopes alive with his brace against DR Congo.
Remaining Teams' Probabilities
Portugal, Colombia, Morocco, Norway, Mexico, Switzerland, USA, Belgium, Canada, Egypt, and Paraguay are the other teams left, in order of probability. Paraguay are the least rated with a 0.29% chance of winning their first ever World Cup, despite eliminating Germany in the Round of 32.
Earlier, Legit.ng reported that France and Argentina overtook Spain as the leading favorites after the group stage, as Spain's chances dipped following a 0-0 draw against debutants Cape Verde.
