Opta's supercomputer has assessed the probabilities for the UEFA Champions League semi-final clash between Arsenal and Atletico Madrid, with the first leg set for Wednesday, April 29, 2026, at the Riyadh Air Metropolitano in Madrid. The return leg will be held at the Emirates Stadium in London on Tuesday, May 5, 2026.
Supercomputer Analysis
According to The Analyst, the supercomputer gives Arsenal a 36.9% chance of winning the first leg, while Atletico Madrid has a 33.6% likelihood of victory. A draw is rated at 29.5%. Arsenal advanced to the semi-finals by defeating Sporting Lisbon 1-0 on aggregate, while Atletico overcame Barcelona 3-2 on aggregate. These two teams previously met in the group stage, where Arsenal secured a 4-0 victory.
Atletico has been strong at home this season, winning five of their seven Champions League matches at the Metropolitano, with only two losses. Arsenal has also performed well on the road, recording five wins and one draw in away games.
Manager Statements
Diego Simeone, after his side's 3-2 La Liga win over Athletic Bilbao, emphasized the effort required to reach this stage. "It's been a struggle for Atletico to reach the Champions League semi-finals and finals. We've built this through hard work and with the support of our fans. We need them more than ever, and hopefully we can give them what they want on the field," he said, as quoted by Into the Calderon.
Mikel Arteta, buoyed by Arsenal's top-of-the-table Premier League victory over Newcastle United, expressed optimism about the trip to Madrid. "I'm happy that we have a beautiful trip to Madrid to play the semi-final of the Champions League. It doesn't happen very often, so recover, and we're going to start to talk about Atletico now, and we'll go for it," he stated, per Arsenal.com.
Ademola Lookman's Message
Ademola Lookman, who joined Atletico in January, sent a message to Arsenal ahead of the tie. He expressed confidence that Atletico can secure a positive result at home despite acknowledging Arsenal as a tough opponent.
