In a major development for English football, the renowned Opta supercomputer has delivered its verdict on the likely winner of the 2025/26 Premier League season. The prediction comes after 18 matches, just as teams prepared for the final fixture of the calendar year, and paints a clear picture of a three-horse race with one notable giant falling away.
The Title Race Narrows to Three Contenders
The data analysis firm, The Analyst, published the supercomputer's findings, which show Arsenal as the overwhelming favourite with a 64.87% chance to clinch the title. This positions the Gunners firmly for a fourth consecutive season of serious championship contention.
Hot on their heels is defending champion Manchester City, who sit just two points behind in the live table. Pep Guardiola's side is given a 26.66% probability of reclaiming the crown from Liverpool. The surprise package of the season, Aston Villa, completes the trio of genuine challengers. Their spectacular run of 11 consecutive wins, including a comeback victory over Chelsea, has earned them a 7.85% chance of a historic title win.
Chelsea's December Disaster Ends Title Hopes
In stark contrast to the top three, last season's Club World Cup champions, Chelsea, have seen their ambitions evaporate after a disastrous December. The Blues managed just one win during the month, a slump that has seen them slip out of contention entirely.
The supercomputer assigns Chelsea a minuscule 0.07% chance of winning the league, statistically eliminating them from the race. Their troubles were compounded by a 2-1 loss to Aston Villa at Stamford Bridge, a match manager Enzo Maresca watched from the stands due to a touchline suspension for accumulated yellow cards.
Liverpool, despite a resurgence that has seen them move back into the top four, has only a 0.85% title chance. All other clubs, including Manchester United who opened the matchday with a 1-0 win over Newcastle, are considered statistically out of the running.
Champions League Qualification and Relegation Drama
The supercomputer also projected the chances for UEFA Champions League qualification. Arsenal is almost a certainty at 99.76%, with Manchester City and Aston Villa also above 90%. Liverpool's chance stands at 61.41%, while Chelsea faces significant uncertainty with only a 21.95% probability of making next season's Champions League.
Manchester United, level on points with Chelsea, is deemed more likely to qualify for the Europa League than the premier European competition.
At the bottom of the table, Wolverhampton Wanderers are all but doomed. With just two points from 18 games, they have a 99.83% chance of relegation. Reuters notes that Wolves have set the record for the longest winless start to a Premier League season and could match Ipswich Town's 1994 record for most losses in a calendar year if they fall to Manchester United. Intriguingly, even Chelsea in fifth retains a 0.03% relegation risk as they have not yet reached the traditional 40-point safety mark.
