The cost of goods brought into Nigeria saw a slight uptick in the third quarter of 2025, according to the latest official data. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported that the country's import price index increased by 0.16 per cent during this period, indicating marginal changes in the prices of foreign products entering the domestic market.
Key Drivers Behind the Import Price Increase
The data, published in the NBS Commodity Price Indices and Terms of Trade report, pinpointed specific sectors where price pressures were most evident. The rise was primarily fueled by higher costs for several imported commodity groups. Notably, prices increased for stone, plaster, cement, and ceramic products. Additionally, footwear and headgear, along with wood and articles of wood, contributed to the overall index climb.
This index is a critical tool for economists as it tracks price fluctuations for all goods imported into Nigeria from its global trading partners. It serves as a vital indicator of external price movements and their potential impact on the local economy.
Export Prices and the Terms of Trade Shift
In a contrasting movement, the report showed that the all-commodity group export price index recorded a more modest increase of 0.06 per cent in the same quarter. The statistics office attributed this to changing prices for exported items such as vehicles, aircraft and parts, prepared foodstuffs, animal products, and other manufactured goods.
The interplay between import and export prices is captured by the terms of trade index, which measures the ratio of a country's export prices to its import prices. The NBS data revealed that Nigeria's all-products terms of trade index declined by 0.10 per cent in Q3 2025. This decline is a direct result of import prices rising at a faster rate than export prices during the quarter, indicating a slight weakening in the trade position from a price perspective.
Broader Context: NBS's Evolving Statistical Framework
The import index is a component of Nigeria's comprehensive price statistics system managed by the NBS. This report comes against the backdrop of significant methodological improvements undertaken by the bureau in recent years. To enhance the accuracy of inflation measurement, the NBS completed a major rebasing of the Consumer Price Index (CPI).
This exercise updated the weight reference period to 2023 and established a new base year of 2024, moving on from the outdated 2009 benchmark. The updated CPI basket was significantly expanded to cover 934 product varieties, organized into 13 divisions under the international COICOP 2018 framework.
The refined framework now includes a wider array of indices such as:
- Headline, food, and core indices
- Imported food index
- Goods and services indices
- Energy index
- Urban and rural indices
- Farm produce and all items less farm produce indices
According to the NBS, this overhaul was designed to better reflect contemporary Nigerian consumption patterns, incorporate updated item weights, and apply methodological enhancements for precise price tracking across different sectors and regions. The monthly publication of this updated CPI supports crucial economic analysis, policy formulation, and monitoring of price developments nationwide.
As Nigeria's official statistical authority, the NBS plays a pivotal role in data production and dissemination. Reports on import and export price indices are essential tools, complementing other macroeconomic indicators used by government bodies, investors, and analysts to assess price trends and evaluate the nation's trade performance.
