In a significant forecast for the nation's financial future, PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) Nigeria has projected that the country's economy will expand by 4.3 per cent in 2026. This optimistic outlook comes even as recent data shows a dip in economic performance, with the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate falling to 3.98% in the third quarter of 2025.
From Stability to Sustainable Growth
The projection forms the core of PwC Nigeria's Economic Outlook 2026 report, which was unveiled to the public on Tuesday, 7 January 2026. The document, themed "Turning Macroeconomic Stability into Sustainable Growth," argues that the foundation for next year's expansion is already being laid. The firm's analysis is based on expectations that inflation will continue to moderate at a gradual pace and that the Nigerian naira will maintain a broadly stable position in the foreign exchange market.
PwC pointed out that Nigeria witnessed considerable gains in macroeconomic stability during 2025. These improvements were largely driven by pivotal monetary and foreign exchange reforms initiated by the government. The results included a noticeable easing of inflation, more stable conditions for the exchange rate, and a strengthening of the country's external reserves.
Key Themes Shaping the 2026 Economic Landscape
The report identifies seven critical issues that are expected to define Nigeria's economic trajectory in the coming year. These themes provide a framework for understanding the complex environment facing businesses and policymakers.
- Monetary Policy Effectiveness
- Fiscal Sustainability and Reform Execution
- Global Economic and Geopolitical Dynamics
- Domestic Security and Social Pressures
- Uneven Sectoral Growth
- Consumer Affordability Constraints
- The Expanding Role of the Digital Economy and Artificial Intelligence
PwC emphasized that the persistence of fiscal limitations underscores an urgent need for better capital efficiency and more robust balance-sheet discipline across both the public and private sectors.
Executive Insights and Business Imperatives
Commenting on the findings, Sam Abu, the Country Senior Partner at PwC Nigeria, stated that the report offers a forward-looking analysis of crucial macroeconomic indicators. "Nigeria has achieved improved macroeconomic stability over the past year," Abu noted. "The focus now is how that stability is translated into sustainable economic growth, and how businesses position for 2026." He added that this newfound stability offers companies a more predictable environment for strategic planning, investment, and growth-related decisions.
Olusegun Zaccheaus, Partner and Chief Economist at PwC Nigeria, provided further context. He highlighted that global growth is projected at around 3.1 per cent, while merchandise trade growth slows to about 0.5 per cent. This global context means factors like oil prices, international capital flows, and access to foreign inflows will remain key channels influencing Nigeria's own growth and foreign exchange liquidity.
Domestically, Zaccheaus explained that improved monetary policy effectiveness has reduced market volatility and clarified signals related to pricing, costs, and funding. However, he cautioned that fiscal pressures, ongoing security challenges, and weak household purchasing power will continue to shape outcomes across different sectors. He predicted that growth is more likely to remain concentrated in services and selected capital-intensive sectors, which places a premium on disciplined capital allocation and careful sector selection.
To navigate this landscape, PwC Nigeria outlined several practical actions for business leaders in 2026. These imperatives include making selective investments in attractive sectors and regions, engaging in scenario planning for potential macroeconomic and geopolitical shocks, and adapting business models for greater resilience. The firm also advises accelerating digital transformation, responsibly adopting artificial intelligence, and strengthening regulatory and tax compliance as government reforms move from design to full execution.
