The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has moved to calm public concerns ahead of the release of the December 2025 inflation data, attributing an expected sharp increase to technical statistical adjustments rather than a worsening economic situation. This clarification comes alongside a stark warning from former presidential candidate Peter Obi that escalating poverty levels now pose a direct threat to Nigeria's future.
NBS Attributes Inflation Spike to CPI Rebasing, Not Economic Deterioration
At a virtual stakeholder meeting organized with the Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG), the Statistician General of the Federation, Adeyemi Adeniran, explained the context. The Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures inflation, has been rebased, shifting its base year from 2009 to 2024. This long-overdue update, occurring after a 15-year gap, has introduced significant methodological changes.
Adeniran emphasized that the anticipated spike in the December 2025 inflation rate, scheduled for release on January 15, 2026, is an "artificial" result of this rebasing exercise. It stems from a base effect, where December 2024 was set equal to 100 for computational linkage to the old series. He stressed that this is a common statistical phenomenon and does not reflect a sudden deterioration in the country's economic fundamentals.
"Following the rebasing exercise and the methodology adopted for December 2025, a significant artificial spike in the inflation rate is expected," Adeniran stated. He warned that without clear communication, such technical outcomes could heighten public uncertainty, weaken trust in official data, and complicate policy-making.
Methodological Adjustments and Global Consultation
Dr. Ayo Anthony, Director of Price Statistics at the NBS, provided further technical details. The 15-year gap necessitated a major overhaul of the CPI basket, with over 400 new products added and more than 200 outdated items removed. The new series now tracks 934 products.
To present a more accurate picture, the NBS will apply a normalization process recommended by the CPI Manual 2020. Instead of using December 2024 alone as the reference point (equal to 100), the Bureau will use the average CPI for the entire year of 2024. This adjustment is designed to remove the artificial base effect from the published figures.
"We are not hiding anything. For transparency, we will still make reference to the artificial spike in our reports," Anthony assured. He noted that the decision was reached in consultation with technical partners including the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Bank, and the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).
Dr. Tayo Aduloju, CEO of the NESG, highlighted the critical role of credible inflation data as Nigeria aims to transition from economic stabilization to growth consolidation. He warned that misleading signals during this phase could undermine hard-won progress and lead to costly policy errors.
Obi Sounds Alarm on Poverty as a National Emergency
In a starkly contrasting narrative, former Labour Party presidential candidate Peter Obi issued a dire warning about Nigeria's poverty crisis. Citing data from the Nigeria Economic Outlook 2026 report, Obi stated that the number of Nigerians living in poverty has surged from 81 million in 2019 to a projected 141 million in 2026.
He described a situation where 62% of the population is projected to be in poverty this year, labeling it a "blatant threat" to the nation's survival that transcends partisan politics. "When 62 per cent of your population is ensnared in poverty, it is not just a national failure; it is a clear danger to our collective future," Obi declared.
Obi criticized the government's fiscal strategy, arguing that attempting to "tax its way out of poverty" is counterproductive. He advocated for a shift towards production-led growth and substantial investment in human capital, drawing comparisons to poverty reduction successes in India and Indonesia.
Calling for a national consensus on structural reforms in agriculture, logistics, and job creation, Obi concluded, "A New Nigeria is possible, but only if we prioritise the welfare of the people over the ambitions of the few."
Global Context: Falling Food Prices Amid Hunger Warnings
In related international developments, the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) reported that world food prices declined for the fourth consecutive month in December 2025. The FAO Food Price Index averaged 124.3 points, its lowest level since January 2025, driven by drops in dairy, meat, and vegetable oil prices.
Despite the monthly declines, the index averaged 4.3% higher for the full year 2025 compared to 2024, with vegetable oil and dairy prices seeing significant annual increases.
Conversely, the head of the World Food Programme (WFP), Cindy McCain, issued an urgent call for global action to prevent man-made famines. She revealed that approximately 318 million people worldwide are facing crisis-level hunger or worse in 2026, with conflict, extreme weather, and economic shocks as primary drivers.
McCain warned that the WFP currently has funding for less than half of its $13 billion requirement to assist 110 million of the world's most vulnerable people, urging world leaders to intervene earlier in crises and address the root causes of hunger.
