The latest data from the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries reveals a concerning dip in Nigeria's crude oil production for the month of November 2025. The figures indicate a continued struggle for the nation to meet its assigned production targets, raising questions about the underlying challenges in the vital sector.
November Production Figures Show a Decline
According to OPEC's December 2025 Monthly Oil Market Report, which relies on data from secondary sources, Nigeria's crude oil output, excluding condensate, dropped to 1.486 million barrels per day (bpd) in November. This represents a slight decrease of 0.7 percent from the 1.496 million bpd recorded in October 2025.
This reported production level means Nigeria failed to achieve its OPEC-assigned production quota of 1.5 million bpd for the period. It is important to note that OPEC's calculations do not include condensate. Separate data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission shows the country produces an additional approximately 196,028 barrels per day of condensate.
A Contradiction in Data and a Glimmer of Hope
The OPEC report presents an interesting contrast when comparing data sources. While the secondary sources indicated a decline, figures obtained through direct communication told a different story. This direct data suggested Nigeria's November 2025 production was actually 1.436 million bpd, which was an increase from the 1.401 million bpd reported via the same method in October.
Despite the monthly drop and the quota shortfall, there is a minor positive note in the year-on-year comparison. The November 2025 output of 1.486 million bpd showed a slight improvement over the 1.417 million bpd produced in the same month of 2024.
Expert Analysis Points to Deep-Rooted Problems
Commenting on the persistent failure to meet OPEC targets, renowned petroleum economics expert, Professor Wumi Iledare, stated the situation was unsurprising. He identified a confluence of critical issues stifling the industry's potential.
Professor Iledare attributed the shortfall to several key factors:
- Persistent insecurity in oil-producing regions.
- An ageing oil basin with a lack of major new discoveries.
- The failure to offer new hydrocarbon blocks for bidding to investors.
- Significant governance gaps and policy uncertainty that erode investor confidence.
He specifically highlighted problems with the implementation of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA), noting that its selective application has compounded existing challenges. The expert stressed that the sector urgently requires a clearly designated leader with the necessary institutional authority to provide direction and drive growth.
"Relying on multiple proxy drivers will not deliver the needed results," Iledare cautioned, adding that he could not recall the last time Nigeria consistently met its OPEC production quota. His analysis underscores the need for cohesive strategy and firm leadership to reverse the trend and harness the sector's full capacity for national economic benefit.
