Spain are the favourites to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, but England, Brazil and Portugal face a historical barrier that may prevent them from lifting the trophy.
Spain Lead the Favourites
The Spanish national team, according to Opta's supercomputer, have the highest chance of winning the tournament. EA Sports, which correctly predicted the last four winners, also named Spain as sole favourites. Despite a goalless draw against debutants Cape Verde, La Roja remain the team to beat.
Defending champions Argentina beat Algeria 3-0, 2022 finalists France defeated Senegal 3-1, England beat Croatia 4-2, and Brazil have four points after drawing Morocco and beating Haiti. Portugal, however, struggled in a 1-1 draw against DR Congo, showing signs of weakness.
The Indigenous Manager Trend
According to DAZN, every country that has won the FIFA World Cup did so with an indigenous manager. This trend has held since the first tournament in 1930, won by Uruguay. Italy's Vittorio Pozzo is the only manager to win twice, in 1934 and 1938.
Recent winners also follow this pattern: Lionel Scaloni (Argentina) in 2022, Didier Deschamps (France) in 2018, Joachim Löw (Germany) in 2014, and Vicente del Bosque (Spain) in 2010.
Foreign Managers in 2026
England are managed by German tactician Thomas Tuchel, Brazil by Italian veteran Carlo Ancelotti, and Portugal by Spanish boss Roberto Martinez. All three are foreign managers, breaking the historical trend.
In contrast, other favourites have indigenous managers: Scaloni and Deschamps remain in charge of Argentina and France, Luis de la Fuente manages Spain, Julian Nagelsmann leads Germany, and the Netherlands have Dutch manager Ronald Koeman.
Brazil are record five-time winners but have not won since 2002. England's only triumph came in 1966, while Portugal have never won the World Cup. Based on this historical pattern, all three are likely to continue their wait.
Supercomputer Predictions
Opta's supercomputer still favours Spain despite their draw with Cape Verde, which slightly reduced their chances. Spain remain the top pick to win the 2026 World Cup, while England, Brazil, and Portugal face an uphill battle against history.
